After the successful implementation of anti-dumping measures for styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) in 2003, the domestic market was effectively shielded from low-cost imports from Russia, Japan, and South Korea. This helped stabilize prices and allowed local producers to thrive. At the same time, strong domestic demand and fully utilized production capacity led to a record output of over 400,000 tons for the first time. Encouraged by this positive trend, industry players remained optimistic about future growth. In 2004, Kyrgyzstan launched a 50,000-ton-per-year SBR project in April, which became operational successfully. Then, in March 2005, Shenhua expanded its production capacity by another 50,000 tons. With a balanced supply-demand relationship, the SBR industry experienced rapid development.
Although the number of imports from neighboring countries dropped significantly after the implementation of anti-dumping duties, and self-sufficiency rates improved, China still relied heavily on imports. In 2003, imports reached 152,000 tons, accounting for 27% of total domestic supply. By 2004, this had decreased to 115,000 tons, or about 18% of the total supply. However, with large-scale projects currently under construction, there are growing concerns about potential overinvestment in the SBR sector.
Industry sources indicate that several manufacturers plan to launch new projects or expand existing ones in the next three years. For instance, Yangzi Jinpu is set to build a new 100,000-ton-per-year milk polybutadiene SBR plant, with the first phase expected to be completed and operational by mid-2006, producing around 30,000 tons annually. Bridgestone is investing approximately 50 million yuan in a 60,000-ton-per-year SBR plant at the Nanhai Petrochemical site. Lanhua plans to construct a 100,000–150,000-ton-per-year milk-based SBR facility by the end of 2007. Qilu Petrochemical will also expand its SBR capacity by 100,000 tons per year, bringing total capacity to 230,000 tons per year once approved. If all these projects proceed as planned, domestic SBR output could reach approximately 770,000 to 780,000 tons.
According to analyses of the development plans of major downstream industries in China, SBR consumption is expected to grow steadily over the next three years, with an average annual growth rate of 5% to 6%. Based on this projection, total demand for SBR in 2008 could reach 700,000 to 720,000 tons. This would lead to an oversupply of 60,000 to 70,000 tons. Moreover, the anti-dumping measures are set to expire on September 9, 2008, which may further intensify the oversupply situation. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor and manage the current investment boom to avoid market imbalances.
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