· Frustrated import cars at the beginning of the year may enter a longer adjustment period

Recently, the data released by the Beijing Asian Games Village Auto Trading Market (hereinafter referred to as the Asian Market) shows that the volume of imported cars in Beijing in January-February this year was 12,100 units, down 5.47% year-on-year. At the same time, China Import Automobile Trading Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Zhongjin Automobile Trade) data shows that the sales volume of imported cars and customs imports in the first two months of this year, that is, demand and supply, fell by 19% and 18% respectively.
"Imported vehicle supply and demand have doubled down. This is the first time I have seen the automotive industry in the past 10 years. It is a very serious situation." Wang Cun, deputy director of the Information Department of the Imported Vehicles Professional Committee of China Automobile Dealers Association, said that China The imported car market will face profound adjustments.
“Destocking” is the top priority “Inventory adjustments may run throughout the year”
The imported car space was squeezed by the data of China Import and Export. In January this year, China's imported car sales fell by more than 20% year-on-year. In February, it fell by 16.6% year-on-year, and the comprehensive decline in January-February was about 19%. At the same time, customs imports fell by 13% in January this year. “In February, the import volume was about 61,000, down by about 25% year-on-year.” Wang Cun said that according to this calculation, the decline in customs imports in January-February this year About 18%. “In February and February, demand fell by 19%, supply fell by 18%, and both fell. This is a very scary conclusion.”
In this regard, the imported car dealers who are active in the market are deeply touched. "In fact, the decline in sales has not been a day or two. Since July last year, in-store sales have begun to show a downward trend." A person in charge of a luxury brand 4S store said that in the fourth quarter of last year, I originally hoped to promote the impulse. But it has no effect.
Most people in the industry believe that the decline in the sales of imported cars mainly comes from two aspects. One is that the overall economic growth slows down. “Macroeconomic adjustments often have the most significant impact on luxury cars with imported cars.” Asian Markets Market Center Deputy General Manager Yan Jinghui said. Second, imported brands have accelerated the pace of domestic production in China, which has also led to a reduction in the supply of imported models and a reduction in the number of models available. “Since the localization of Volvo XC60, our store has rarely imported XC60 from manufacturers.” A Volvo 4S store sales manager in Haidian District said.
Contradictions in production and sales or re-energization However, the increase in domestic models is not the main reason for the decline in the supply of imported cars. "The reason why the customs import volume has fallen sharply is that the main reason is that the imported car inventory has remained high since last year." Wang Cun told reporters that the inventory depth of the imported car dealers has been more than four months. The results of the dealer inventory survey released by the China Automobile Dealers Association also showed that in January this year, the import brand inventory coefficient was 2.01, much higher than the joint venture brand of 1.03 and the independent brand of 1.19, and the imported brand inventory level was still above the warning line.
"The state of the first half of this year will be to go to stock." Yan Jinghui said.
However, in Wang Cun's view, the unfavorable situation in the imported car market cannot be adjusted in the short term. "From the historical experience of 2012, the high inventory brought by high supply may take 6-9 months to digest. This year, the inventory depth is higher than that of 2012, so we expect the required adjustment time to be Longer. This year should be a veritable adjustment of imported car inventory, and inventory may go through the year."
“The manufacturer should adjust the supply quantity as soon as possible and complete the task of destocking as soon as possible, otherwise our price can only go down further.” The head of the above-mentioned German brand dealers said that the main reason for the intensification of the contradiction between many brand dealers and manufacturers last year was inventory. Too high, causing prices to hang up, dealer profits have fallen sharply. "If this is the case this year, it is estimated that more dealers will rise up and fight."
Car dealers will accelerate the reshuffle "it is an opportunity to regulate the healthy development of the market"
“Important and non-standard imported car dealers will gradually shrink or even withdraw from the market.” Yan Jinghui said that under this severe living conditions, imported car dealers with small scale, high capital pressure or unregulated operation are bound to face. The crisis that was eliminated.
"Since the beginning of last year, there have been several closures around our store." An imported car dealer named Liu in the Asian city told reporters that the consumer demand for imported cars has weakened, leading to the sales cycle of many imported models. Increasingly, the financial costs of car dealers have also increased, and financial pressures have increased. "If there is a small problem in the capital chain, it will not be able to survive. Only the car dealers who can withstand the pressure can survive." In addition, many car dealers under high inventory have chosen to cut prices, which has also increased their own financial pressure.
Yan Jinghui told reporters that there are already many smaller imported car dealers that have begun to reduce their business volume, or to withdraw from the sales points originally set up in other provinces and cities in Beijing, and even unable to withstand the pressure to directly withdraw from the market. "Compared with those strong imported car dealer groups or first-class dealers, the import car dealers of 'small door small households' have much weaker turnover and anti-risk ability." Yan Jinghui believes that the standard imported cars In the market and promoting the healthy development of the market, this situation may also be an opportunity. “Removing small car dealers with irregular standards and poor strength will leave behind competitive car dealers.”
Parallel import cars are not effective. "Many multinational companies have strengthened their control over vehicles."
In August of last year, with the announcement of the State Administration for Industry and Commerce on the cessation of the implementation of the record-breaking work of the general dealers and authorized dealers of automobile brands, parallel import car dealers were no longer restricted by the filing system and officially “listed into the room”. In February of this year, parallel imported cars were sold in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, and Shenzhen will also become the second city to pilot parallel imported cars.
However, from the known partial data, the performance of parallel imported cars is not satisfactory. According to Yan Jinghui, in the first two months of this year, the proportion of parallel imported car sales in the Beijing market to the total number of imported cars is declining. “The ratio was 8%-9% last year and 7.3% this year.” At the same time, Wang Cun told reporters that according to the customs import data he has, the proportion of imports of parallel imported cars in January this year is also It is falling. “A lot of multinational companies have strengthened their control over every region or market after learning about the parallelization of imported cars in China.”
In addition, Yan Jinghui said that the "Consultation Draft for Automobile Sales Management Measures" stipulates that "the vehicles that have been registered or used inside and outside the country may not be sold in the name of selling automobiles", which means that the import of cars is prohibited from being "secondary sales" in the Chinese market. ". "According to the laws of the United States, all vehicles are tax-paid and registered after leaving the factory." Yan Jinghui told reporters that because the US standard car is likely to be unable to sell normally, many dealers will stop importing American-standard cars to resist policy uncertainty. The risks brought by it have led to a decline in imports.
However, in the eyes of many insiders, even if the US standard car can be sold normally, parallel imported cars are also facing a large rival - the corresponding domestic models. "One of the big advantages of parallel imported cars is that they are cheaper, but compared to domestic cars, this advantage obviously does not exist." An Audi 4S store official said.
"For example, the Toyota Prado 2700, this car has been confirmed to be domestically produced, the price is relatively low, estimated to be around 400,000 yuan, basically the price is similar to the version of the parallel import." Wang Cun believes that in the case of increasing domestically produced models, parallel imports The advantage of the car is no longer available. "So from the scale or total volume of parallel imported cars, this year will not be higher than last year."
■ Nouns Explain the stock depth hypothesis according to the current sales situation, and estimate how long it depends on inventory. The unit is generally “month”.

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